The best way to predict the future…is if we all get a chance to invent it. Nesta on “participative futures”
We are slowly considering this powerful new paper from Nesta on participative futures. A “participative future” is an exercise in imagining possible outcomes and scenarios, over the next few decades, with an emphasis on the involvement of the communities affected. And with an equal emphasis on using creative, artistic and facilitatory techniques to provide the basic research - that is, not just long-term studies based on statistical trends, delivered by experts from on high.
The paper contains a plethora of games, platform, installations and performances that can be enjoyed by those in the process - we will elaborate some of them next week. But we wanted to paste some of their big orientation concepts - the “why” of participative futures - because there’s actually a lot of relevance here to A/UK’s concerns about how we re-inspire disillusioned, cynical citizens.
One immediate problem with it may be that it’s definitely talking to the governors, at whatever level - giving them a suite of soft measures whereby they can engage a resistant public in projects that might well begin from the central office, not the streets. Our own Futures strand contains shows that tension often. But as ever from Nesta, it’s clearly expressed and fascinatingly referenced - a good tool for further thinking and acting.
Some of their key points below:
Decision-making needs to get better at accounting for future generations
For much of human history, we only needed to solve the problems of the present, but the 21st century’s complex challenges mean today’s decision-making also has to cope with the threats, opportunities and dilemmas of the future, too. Biodiversity loss, climate change, extreme technological risks, and ageing populations are just some of the issues that will transform the world and our cities for future generations and place new burdens on them.
As the school climate strikes have highlighted, with every action or inaction, we help decide the futures others will inherit. This means switching our frames as policy-makers and as citizens to consider our role as ancestors – acknowledging social inclusion from a temporal perspective.
Recent initiatives, such as Lord Bird’s call to enshrine the rights of future generations in decision-making processes, and Finland’s Committee on the Future, which challenges ministers on short-term approaches, show how this concept is beginning to get traction. Most people, however, rarely think beyond the short- term, and this is one reason that makes it hard for politicians and societies to agree on the trade-offs we are prepared to collectively make for long-term benefit.
Making progress in how we think and decide together for the future is critical to our ability to solve these complex challenges while we still have time.
We need to rebuild people’s trust in institutions to deal with long-term challenges
Surveys of people’s trust in politicians and governments generally show a long-term decline, with just one in five people now feeling that the system works for them. In the US, 48 per cent of people say they don’t have confidence in politicians to deal with future challenges. In the UK, 69 per cent of people think that MPs aren’t taking enough action to guard against the challenges of the next wave of technological change. Across the West, young people are losing faith in democracy.
It is not just our democratic institutions that are failing to grapple effectively with long-term challenges. Doteveryone’s survey of UK tech workers found that of those focusing on AI, 59 per cent thought they were working on products that could be harmful for society. In 2018, the phrase ‘techlash’ was runner-up for Oxford Dictionary’s word of the year, defined as the “strong and widespread negative reaction to the growing power and influence that large technology companies hold.”
To regain trust, institutions will need better ways to reconnect with what matters to people, which may result in them being reshaped or changed. Trust will be essential to help build constituencies for long-term change that can negotiate sustainable solutions and survive political cycles, or overcome market myopia.
We need to help people and communities deal with uncertainty, build resilience to change and act collectively
People are feeling overwhelmed by the pace of change and pessimistic about the future. In 2018, Gallup’s World Poll found the world was more angry, fearful and sad than at any other time. Global public opinion polling also shows a majority pessimistic view about the future: just 34 per cent of people in advanced economies think their children will be financially better off than them when they grow up. This view only slightly increases to 42 per cent for people who live in emerging economies.
The uncertainty experienced by individuals in relation to rapid change has been linked to support for nationalism and religion, as people search for a collective identity to provide security and answers. Helping people to feel a sense of agency over their own futures is critical for maintaining social cohesion and preventing a fracturing along ethnic, racial, cultural, historical or other identity lines.
Participatory futures can also facilitate collective action that is necessary to tackle systemic challenges like climate change.
We need to create inclusive futures and ensure the benefits of emerging technologies are shared
The lack of diversity in the tech industry and STEM subjects has been well-documented and much lamented. Just 15 per cent of scientists come from working class backgrounds, for example, while only 13.8 per cent of AI researchers publishing on arXiv (the academic pre-prints website) were found to be female. Similarly, innovators tend to be predominantly white and wealthy. The consequences of this are already manifest in technologies that have fundamental blind spots in relation to the broader social and ethical implications.
For example, the Amazon recruitment engine that was biased against women. It is perhaps unsurprising that more than half of the British public does not believe technological benefits will be shared evenly across society. The 2019 Edelman Trust Barometer also warns that the benefit of new technologies is becoming tougher to discern; on a global level, 32 per cent of people say they’ve personally suffered loss or hardship because of technological innovations, and 47 per cent believe technological innovation is happening too quickly. Addressing the public’s concerns will be as crucial for the acceptance of new technologies and companies’ social licence to operate as it is for governments grappling with regulation.
Collective images of the future help orient and organise in times of disruption
Throughout history, humans, organisations and societies have used mental images in the form of myths, legends and religion to organise themselves. Images of the future play a particularly significant role in our lives, since our ability to make plans, decisions or set goals rests on them. Brain research shows that collective images offer orientation in times of uncertainty or when the necessity of reshaping our living environments becomes apparent. Participatory futures approaches use and create shared public images of the future that can provide a ‘destination identity’ – acting as a motivating force to turn the ‘imagined’ into the real.
Like Martin Luther King’s “I have a dream” speech or John F. Kennedy’s ‘Moon speech’, positive images help pull us towards the future helping to catalyse social change and overcome cultural obstacles to it. Participatory futures help people develop shared perspectives on what is possible and, as a result, people experience a shared sense of hope, identity, possibility and power in relation to the future.
Participatory futures approaches therefore offer real opportunities to support our organisations, communities and citizens in addressing our 21st century challenges in new, creative, and potent ways.
Diversity of perspectives helps prevent blind spots – especially in relation to new technologies
Whether as individuals, communities or organisations, when we hold assumptions about the future that are unquestioned, we amass blind spots. These not only limit our ability to react to negative changes, blind spots can lessen our ability to anticipate and exploit opportunities. Many of our blind spots are simply engrained ways of seeing the world – worldviews. Theories of collective intelligence and cognitive diversity show that more diverse groups are better at solving problems.
This goes for thinking about the future and the social implications or contextual application of new technologies, too. When we hear perspectives on the future that differ from our own, we enhance our ability to question assumptions and imagine the possible in new ways. Participatory futures can help provide a ‘citizens-in-the-loop’ approach to the socialisation of new technologies – drawing on diverse views to help identify potential blind spots and previously unforeseen opportunities or needs.
Catalysing distributed experimentation and more inclusive innovation
To address the challenges of the 21st century, organisations and communities need to become skilled in mobilising collective intelligence from all parts of society. Participatory futures approaches help to democratise knowledge and insight about the future. Enabling a wider range of people to understand the dynamics of what is happening diversifies the pool of innovators and increases opportunities to generate solutions.
Working backwards from preferred futures also enables people to build future-oriented roadmaps and more sustainable innovations, and mobilises key players from different sectors to decide collectively on a new course of action. Rather than being overwhelmed by change, participatory futures activities enable citizens and communities to be proactive in shaping their futures.