Useful piece from the BBC, reporting on what looks like a very strong underlying shift in public attitudes towards the importance of climate change:

The polling company YouGov has tracked views on the environment for nearly a decade and for most of that time the subject ranked pretty low.

There was a spike in interest following the violent storms of the winter of 2013-14 in which many areas were hit by devastating floods but that was an exception, and things slipped back to "normal" soon afterwards.

But this year something has shifted dramatically, according to YouGov [original report here, main graph below]

Chris Curtis, one of its researchers, says that in the most recent poll 27% of voters cited the environment as one of three top issues - behind Brexit and health. That puts it on par with crime and the economy.

And he says this is particularly striking among younger voters - 45% of 18-24 year olds put it as their second biggest concern after Brexit.

His conclusion? "I think over this election campaign politicians are going to have to start discussing the issue of the environment if they want to win over the support of those younger voters."

The YouGov polling points very clearly to the protests by Extinction Rebellion last April as being one key factor.

Resented by some, inspiring to many, the movement has at the very least got people talking.

Around the same time, the school strikes led by the Swedish 16-year-old Greta Thunberg were catching the imagination of thousands of British children - and maybe some of their parents too.

The past summer saw record-breaking heatwaves and scientists making it clear that rising temperatures are not a problem for the distant future, but something that's threatening now.

And on top of it all, the revered tones of Sir David Attenborough have been heard by millions, including right now with his new series 'Seven Worlds, One Planet', warning that the threat of climate change is real and dangerous.

More here.

In the New Statesman, Hettie O’Brien’s piece has taken the YouGov results further, studying them to see what are the top five, most popular environmental proposals, emerging from the organisation’s steady polling on this topic over the last few years:

1. Increasing government spending to make local bus transport free for everyone

Both Labour and the Green Party have pledged to make bus transport affordable, or free, as part of their Green New Deal proposals – a measure intended to slash emissions from private diesel and petrol cars and help low-income voters.

The idea is popular. Almost half of UK voters support “increased government spending to make local bus transport free for everyone”. Unlike in the case of the 2030 target, support for free bus travel is distributed more evenly across the country – suggesting that investment in infrastructure essential to peoples’ lives could help appeal to voters outside major cities.

2. Banning private jets

Andy McDonald, Labour’s shadow transport secretary, has said the party would consider a ban on non-electric private jets used by “multi-millionaires and billionaires who… are doing profound damage to the climate”. According to Common Wealth, a think tank with close links to the Labour, private jets represent 6 per cent of all UK air traffic; a private-jet flight from London to New York is equivalent to driving a UK car for four and a half years, non-stop.

It’s unsurprising that a greater proportion of voters are in favour of banning private jets (33 per cent), compared to the number who say they’d oppose such a ban (15 per cent): the overwhelming majority of people don’t own a private jet (Prince Harry aside). “Nowhere is carbon inequality more evident than private jet ownership,” Commonwealth’s researchers write. Indeed, as Ward notes, “the public are more likely to support policies they believe to be fair”.

3. Taking responsibility for the global effort on climate change (e.g. the biggest polluters working with the most affected to develop solutions)

The issue of climate reparations – where countries that have polluted the most pay the burden of climate emergencies – is a thorny one.

During a Labour conference debate about the Green New Deal, Steve Turner, the assistant general secretary of Unite, enthusiastically called for climate reparations to the global south. The Green Party mentioned reparations in its 2019 European election manifesto. Some, including Boris Johnson, believe that because the UK contributes less to global emissions than countries like China and India, it shouldn’t be paying more to confront the burden of emissions. Of course, this ignores the country’s historic role as a prime carbon emitter – and the effects of past industrialisation on the environment.

For now, at least, voters are in favour of the UK taking responsibility in the global effort on climate change, with 72 per cent of people strongly supporting or tending to support the ideal. But the question was phrased without mentioning the costs associated with policies like reparations – meaning it’s difficult to draw firm conclusions about what, exactly, respondents mean by “responsibility”.

4. Creating well-paid, skilled green jobs across the country

During the Great Depression of the 1930s, FD Roosevelt, faced with the ecological crisis of the dust bowl and a stagnant US economy, launched a number of jobs creation programmes to tackle unemployment and rebuild the public realm. Drawing inspiration from the US president’s New Deal, proposals for a Green New Deal hinge on a similarly extensive programme of jobs creation.

The proposal commands majority support, with 80 per cent of poll respondents in favour – and only 8 per cent opposed. Among lower-income voters, almost as many (77 per cent) were in favour. This appeals to common sense: who wouldn’t say yes to more well-paid, green, skilled jobs? As Ward notes, though, “it also has an associated question – are you happy to see the number of jobs in some [carbon-intensive] sectors severely reduced?”

5. More government investment in green infrastructure, such as public transport and building insulation

Labour has promised a £250bn programme to retrofit houses to make them more carbon efficient; at the 2017 general election, the Greens pledged a national programme of retrofitting and insulation. The Lib Dems, meanwhile, have promised to insulate all low-income homes by 2025.

Among voters, the policy enjoys a similar appeal to job creation; 82 per cent were in support of more investment. Once more, as with the green jobs proposal, climate policies are more popular when centred on a vision of change that stresses the benefits of a carbon-free future.