A “deep fake” Dutch Prime Minister delivers hard facts about the climate dangers his country faces. A powerful trick - but there's ambivalent consequences

This is a clever and striking piece of what you could call “data” journalism. Except this data is being used to exactly simulate the voice, body language and facial features of a sitting Prime Minister, the Netherlands Mark Rutte. They’re animating this “deep fake” to give the radical climate speech Rutte would never give in real life - but should, based on the most verified and realistic research.

It’s a project initiated by the Dutch participatory journalism platform De Correspondant (whose English language version expired earlier this year). We’ve put their explanatory article (in Dutch) through a Microsoft translator, posted that below, and made sense of obvious glitches (please correct anything we’ve gotten wrong in comments).

We’re profiling this as a fascinating piece of cultural activism, but it would be true to say that we’re ambivalent about it as a tactic. What terrible words could emerge from a credibly simulated agent in a geopolitical situation, inciting hair-trigger actions? And yet, might it be part of a general scepticism about top-down and charismatic modes of authority, helping people to turn to each other and their community power instead?

Accountability: How mark Rutte's deepfake climate speech came about (and what it is based on)

Jelmer Mommer in De Correspondent

We made a deep fake video in which 'Prime Minister Mark Rutte' announces far-reaching climate measures. Here we relate our motivation to make this video, and refer to the sources on which we based the speech.

Today we publish a speech by the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in which he shows climate leadership for the first time. At least, a speech that we think the Prime Minister should give. Because the speech was written by us and the video in which Mark Rutte gives speech is a deepfake – not reality.

The text was written by climate correspondent Jelmer Mommers and theatre makers Anoek Nuyens and Rebekah White. Actor Remko Vrijdag crawled into the skin of Prime Minister Mark Rutte, with the help of deepfake maker Bob de Jong. That's how he became 'KlimaatRutte' – a prime minister who shows what climate leadership can look like.

With the help of this deepfake - after a summer full of extreme weather and on the eve of the climate summit in Glasgow – KlimaatRutte will tell the honest story about climate change. The story that the Dutch public never hears from the real Mark Rutte, but that we desperately need to secure the future of our country and our children.

Here we would like to explain the substantive and journalistic considerations that were the basis for this publication and on which sources, ideas and examples we have based our creation.

1. Why this plea for climate leadership?

Political leadership is a necessary condition for tackling the climate crisis. Anoek, Rebekka and Jelmer came to that conclusion after years of writing about the climate problem.

“Everyone does something”, the leading climate campaign from the Dutch government at the moment, is not enough. It is a message with a long history: it hopes that society will solve this itself as long as everyone “contributes”. Earlier, the government shifted the responsibility onto the citizen with the campaign “A better environment starts with yourself”.

But it is precisely in major upheavals like this that government must take the lead at decisive moments. This is not yet happening sufficiently: despite efforts in Europe and in the parliament, Dutch emissions will also rise again in 2021. The government has already been convicted of climate crime in the Urgenda case, but little has since been done.

Rutte has not shown leadership so far; on the contrary, he often goes back to soothing cliches such as 'We must be able to continue to lead a nice life' and "I am not for sweeping statements'. He said the latter when he registered the damage caused by the floods in Limburg in July this year.

Only very recently does a different sound come from the mouth of the Prime Minister. He said in September 2021 that he is 'afraid' of the consequences of climate change and that the Netherlands would be 'lost' if the worst-case scenarios come true – and that limiting emissions is therefore necessary.

Our thought was: we'll come to his aid.

2. Why a deepfake?

By letting KlimaatRutte speak the honest story about climate change, we want to show what climate leadership looks like

We ask everyone who also believes that decisive climate leadership is needed to share the video of KlimaatRutte with as many people as possible. In this way we’ll show the real Mark Rutte that there is a lot of support for the honest story.

The form we choose for this – a deepfake video – is of course accompanied by the necessary journalistic dilemmas and risks. What if viewers think the video is real? What if we contributed to the spread of 'fake news'?

Because we are very aware of these risks, we did not go overboard. On the contrary, wemapped out a detailed working method, assisted by a lawyer, in which the journalistic integrity of the project was central and fully guaranteed.

We also collaborated with a deepfake maker who explicitly does not want to use the technology to deliberately deceive people (similar to ethical hackers, who expose vulnerabilities in online networks through their activities).

In addition, we have ensured that it is clear to everyone at all times that the video of Mark Rutte is not real.

• Everywhere we show this video, we mention that this KlimaatRutte is not the real Mark Rutte. We explicitly ask other media, when they show fragments of the speech, to do the same.

• Towards the end of the speech, we let KlimaatRutte explicitly say that he is not Mark Rutte. In the credits it is explicitly stated that this is a deepfake.

• The décor of the Turret where KlimaatRutte delivers his speech has been visibly adjusted. Behind him are paintings, books and attributes placed that refer to nature and climate, and which are not there during speeches by the real Mark Rutte from the Torentje.

So we are doing the exact opposite of what fake news creators are doing. Instead of presenting falsehoods as if they were true, in a form that pretends to be "real," we present facts about climate change and necessary measures in a form that we explicitly state is fake.

3. What sources and ideas underlie this speech?

In the speech, various facts about climate change are discussed and KlimaatRutte presents a 'package of measures' to combat global warming. Below we explain what these facts and measures are based on.

The dangers of climate change

Climate change is portrayed in the speech as a threat “to the survival of the Netherlands”. We outline the worst scenario, or what happens if “everything goes wrong”.

This could be the case if 1) global emissions remain high, 2) climate continues to heat up quickly and 3) the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are rapidly disappearing into the sea as a result. The latter process is crucial and surrounded by uncertainty: we don't know exactly how fast ice caps will melt. What we do know is that the faster the ice sheet in Antarctica melts, the more disastrous this will be for the Netherlands.

The figures we in this part of the speech, coming from the IPCC and of research institute Deltares. This week, KNMI also published a report that confirms that in the worst case scenario the sea level rise off the Dutch coast before the end of this century (in 2090) may exceed 2 meters.

That is a scenario in which the possibility of accelerated melting of the antarctic ice sheet has been taken into account – a still poorly understood process. If potentially accelerating ice loss is not taken into account, sea level rises between 30 and 100 centimeters will occur before the end of this century.

We therefore consciously draw attention to a scenario in which the probability is small, but the consequences of which are enormous.

This is sometimes seen as 'alarmism'. But despite all the climate promises, so far global emissions continue to increase almost every year. An increase that for the time being is in line with emissions in the worst-case scenarios. Moreover, it is crucial that we do not know exactly how the climate is sensitive to the emissions we cause. Even if we manage to reduce emissions, warming could be significant.

Finally, there is the melting of the land ice on Antarctica and on Greenland. That ice melts due to warming is a given. But it's uncertain how fast this goes. It can go faster than expected, for example because ice cliffs along the edge of the ice sheet collapse under their own weight. Or because warm ocean water gets under the edges of the ice sheet, and thus accelerates the ice loss. Then the land ice ends up in the sea and the sea level rises.

Just as the corona crisis has also taught us that unlikely events – such as a global pandemic – can come true, it is also wise to take into account unlikely scenarios.

The core point is: with the current emission level, the question is not whether the Netherlands will disappear under water, but when. Hopefully, emissions will decrease, the climate will not be hypersensitive to our emissions and the ice at the South Pole will not calve very quickly.

Even then, the sea level will rise by meters in the following centuries. Even then, it stops for the Netherlands at some point. Sea level rise can no longer be stopped, but it can still be substantially slowed down with sharp reductions in emissions. That is what we draw attention to in the speech.

About possible accelerated sea level rise, the real Mark Rutte said recently in the House of Representatives: “If these figures were to result, the Netherlands would be lost. Then you can no longer inhabit the western part of the Netherlands. You can no longer maintain that with a few dikes or a few smart sand engines”.

In the speech, KlimaatRutte also warns of a future full of heat waves, floods and droughts. The IPCC considers it proven that climate change is already leading to more frequent and severe heat waves and floods, and to greater drought. All these types of weather extremes increase as warming increases further.

It is also a fact that the Dutch are breathing unhealthy air and that the Netherlands is lagging behind other European countries when it comes to the transition to clean energy. In addition, our CO2 emissions per capita are significantly higher than the EU average.

The proposed measures

In order to mitigate warming and make the Netherlands more sustainable, 'the ClimateRutte cabinet' has put together a legislative package, of which KlimaatRutte sets out the most important principles in the speech. We walk past them briefly here, to explain where they come from.

The first principle: pollution is becoming more expensive. This is one of the oldest ideas in the environmental economy: make the polluter pay, for example by introducing a CO2 price or a meat tax. This discourages pollution and makes sustainable alternatives more attractive. This is one of the most effective measures to reduce emissions.

The second principle is that the pain of the transition is shared fairly. The idea behind this is that you can expect resistance to climate policy if that people into (energy) poverty. So it's a way to get people on board.

The third principle is that the government finances the transition with loans - 'we can pay for this', says our KlimaatRutte. This is an expression of a growing consensus among economists and investors: that borrowing money for greening is now more important than cut back to eliminate the corona debts. Borrowing money is currently for the Netherlands very cheap.

'The Dutch business community is being made future-proof with generous government support', is the fourth starting point. The image we have in mind here is that of an 'entrepreneurial government' as proposed by the Italian-American economist Mariana Mazzucato.

In her book The Entrepreneurial State, Mazzucato shows that a lot of innovation comes thanks to government policy, and that a state that consciously pursues a policy for greening can be very successful in achieving social goals. This implies industrial policy, targeted shrinkage of polluting sectors and thus also the recognition that 'not everything is possible everywhere'.

The fifth principle – 'We let go of the pursuit of endless economic growth' – stems from the insight that gross domestic product (GDP) growth is too limited a gauge to sail on if you want to shape the future of a country.

Well-being is more important than prosperity, and a developed economy needs to be not necessarily to grow. Some parts of the economy will shrink during the sustainability transition, others will grow – whether the net result is growth or contraction is less important than the transition itself. Economist Kate Raworth therefore advises be 'agnostic' about growth.

4. What were the main sources of inspiration for this speech?

In writing this speech, we draw on various examples of politicians who have recognised the seriousness and complexity of this crisis, and acted accordingly.

The corona speeches by Mark Rutte were a source of inspiration, but also that of prime minister Joop den Uyl in the oil crisis, of U.S. President Roosevelt during the Great Depression and more recently from New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, who declares a 'climate emergency' in her country.

This is how we gave KlimaatRutte a voice: a politician who understands that you can only solve a major crisis with a decisive government.

Historian Annelien de Dijn was also a great source of inspiration. In her book Freedom: A Turbulent History (2021), she concludes that we are using our current idea of freedom – which revolves around protecting private property and the individual – derive from conservative enemies of democracy. But freedom is also a collective responsibility. In The ClimateRutte speech, we tried to use this concept of freedom.

We also benefited greatly from the words of the Flemish Minister for the Environment Bruno Tobback, who said in 2007: 'Almost every politician knows what to do to tackle the climate problem. However, there is not a single politician who knows how to get elected afterwards.' We wanted to formulate a bold solution to this dilemma: our goal is that by sharing this video, citizens can say loud and clear that they support far-reaching climate policy.

Although our KlimaatRutte proposes strong measures, he is not an exclusive ruler. He follows the democratic route: “his” cabinet submits bills to parliament. Admittedly, the timing is a bit strange, because the formation of a new cabinet is still in progress. That is why we are pretending in the speech that the outgoing cabinet has come to the conclusion that the climate cannot wait any longer. In principle, as with the corona crisis, the government can declare itself a missionary in the field of climate, in order to take steps without delay.

5. How did this speech come about and who did we work with?

The idea for this video arose in a telephone conversation that I (Jelmer) had over the summer with Matthea de Jong, founder of the Warming Up Festival. I contacted Anoek and Rebekka, who had previously caused a furore with their climate theatre performances. Unless you have a better plan and The Shell case. They were immediately enthusiastic about the idea.

I approached Bob de Jong, talented deepfake maker and the man behind 'Deep Fake'. And we made contact with actor Remko Vrijdag, who regularly imitates Mark Rutte in (satirical) TV programs. The deepfake was included in the Endorphin Experience & Greenscreenstudio in Almere.

From De Correspondent, deputy editor-in-chief Rosan Smits coordinated this project together with editorial project manager Edivania Lopes Duarte. Rutger Bregman, Marc Chavannes and Rob Wijnberg commented on the text. Hans Pieter van Stein Callenfels did the final editing, Isabelle van Hemert the image editing and the décor. Jacco Prantl mixed the sound, Luka van Diepen made the credits. This production was made possible by a contribution from the Correspondent Foundation.